Please complete all components.
1. Select a country of your choice and very briefly describe the presence of two Global Risks (from the list below). Discuss how those two risks may raise the likelihood of an event associated with two of the following (your choice): a currency crisis, banking crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, and/or a speculative bubble.
2. Identify and justify four indicators (data series) to monitor for these types of crises/instability. NOTE! These indicators are of your own choosing (not necessarily from the list below). Graph and note the movements of the series. (Consider a 20-25 year time horizon.)
3. Refine your analysis of the indicators by applying two quantitative methods of your choice. Check whether there is evidence that there is correlation between the time series you selected. Could the correlation between strong enough to warrant a check for causality?
4. Critically evaluate the results found in section 3. (What went well, and what could be better.)
*10 Global Risks as identified by the WEF and IMF:
Cost of living crisis
Natural disasters and extreme weather events
Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization
Large scale involuntary migration
State collapse or severe instability
Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity